NBA Picks

Larry Ness

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NBA (NBA playoff run reaches 11-2-1 since Apr 29!)

Will the real Boston Celtics show up tonight in Game 4 or is the team we've seen so far in the postseason, actually the real Celtics? The Celtics won 66 games this season (seven more than the next best team, the Pistons), giving them the biggest single-season turnaround in NBA history (Boston won just 24 games the previous year). Boston's new "Big Three" led the way (Allen, Garnett and Pierce) but fellow starters Rondo and Perkins played very well plus the bench was underrated. Led by defensive player-of-the-year (Garnett), Boston allowed the second-fewest PPG in the league (90.3), while leading the NBA in defensive FG percentage (also No. 1 in three-point percentage). However, while the Celtics have won all six home playoff games (5-1 ATS), the team which was an NBA-best 31-10 on the road during the regular season, has yet to win a playoff road game. In fact, Boston is the ONLY one of the eight teams still playing, which hasn't won away from home in the postseason. The 37-win Hawks took all three games in Atlanta and the Cavs, after being held to just 72.5 PPG in losing the first two games of this series in Boston, won Game 3 in Cleveland on Saturday, 108-84. That leaves Boston 0-4 SU and ATS on the road this postseason, allowing a very unimpressive 102.5 PPG. Garnett's played well for Boston but Allen and Pierce have really struggled. Allen went 0--for-4 in Game 1 without scoring (in 37 minutes!) and then has gone just 8-of-22 the last two games. Pierce was terrible in Game 1 (2-of-14 with four points), played better in Game 2 (7-of-13 for 19 points) but then went just 3-of-8 in Game 3 (14 points). Getting to the Cavs, they 'limped' home for Game 3 after two pathetic efforts in Boston. The team had collectively gone 49-of-148 (33.1) from the floor, including a pathetic 6-of-31 (19.4) from behind the three-point arc. LeBron shot 8-of-42 (0-of-10 on threes) and had 17 turnovers in the two games. Now the most surprising stat of Cleveland's 108-84 win on Saturday was that LeBron was hardly a HUGE factor. Cleveland jumped out to a 32-13 lead at the end of the first quarter and extended the lead to 43-1`7 and never looked back. However, LeBron was just 5-of-16 from the floor, scoring 21 points (just two TOs, though). As a team, the Cavs went 37-of-69 (53.6 percent), including 10-19 on threes. West came through with 21 points also (7-of-11 FGs, including 4-of-6 threes), PF Joe Smith scored 17 points off the bench and Ben Wallace contributed nine points and nine rebounds. Ilgauskus has had an excellent series (17.7-8.3) and Szczerbiak (14.0) has been a consistent scorer as well but James has yet to 'EXPLODE' (see Game 5 of LY's Eastern Conf Finals against Detroit!). In picking the Spurs last night, I predicted a big game for Duncan, who had yet to have one vs the Hornets. He came through with 22 and 15 and led the Spurs to an easy 100-80 win. I'm predicting a breakout game for James in this one, as the Cavs even this series as well. Las Vegas Insider on the Cle Cavs.
Condition: Cleveland Grade:

Big Al McMordie

BIG AL's 15-2 ATS CLEVELAND/BOSTON GAME 4 WINNER!

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics plus the points over Cleveland. A lot is being made of the fact that the Celts are winless on the road in this year's post-season, going 0-3 at Atlanta, and losing Saturday at Cleveland. But before getting too down on Boston, don't forget that Doc Rivers' men had the best regular-season record away from home this year, going 31-10 on the road. I doubt that the Celtics all of a sudden forgot how to win away from home. Indeed, they were in all three games at Atlanta (though were never in Saturday's game at Cleveland). Tonight, I expect Boston to break thru and get a road win. Consider that, since 1991, #1 seeds are a stellar 15-2 in the Playoffs as road dogs off exactly one loss, if that loss was by more than 10 points. As of this writing, the Celtics are an underdog of +2 or +2.5 points, and it's worth noting that if our road dog is getting +2.5 or more points, then our 15-2 system zooms to a perfect 12-0 ATS. Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Condition: Boston Grade:

Ross Benjamin

Ross B. NBA 15* Top Play Celtics/Cavs

Thus far in the 2nd Round of the playoffs the home favorites are 13-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS. My personal intuition and more importantly history says that this trend is highly unlikely to continue. The Cavaliers are 2-11 SU and ATS in the last 13 games coming off a SU win in which they scored 100 points or more. The Celtics are 12-2 SU and ATS this season coming off a SU loss in which they allowed 110 points or less. Boston will be in a foul mood after being thoroughly embarrassed in Game 3. After having the best road record in the NBA during the regular season they are 0-4 SU and ATS in the playoffs in that role. This is another trend that is highly unlikely to continue. Look for the Celtics to turn up the intensity on the defensive end tonight that will be the key to us collecting on our wager.

Any conference playoff underdog in a Game 4 that is up 2-1 in the series that has a win percentage of .623 or better, they are coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they allowed 83 points or more, and is playing an opponent with a win percentage of .675 or less is 15-1 ATS since 1996.
Condition: Boston Grade:

Cullen Mathews

Cullen's 15* Unit NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Selection - 6-0 L6, +55.0 UNITS, over +80 Units for the PLAYOFFS ALONE.

I expect this game to be much closer than Game 3, but still feel that the Cavs will ultimately prevail. Obviously, Boston hasn't been nearly as sharp on the road as it has at home, and it will have to prove otherwise until I can back them. Cleveland could easily be up in this series 2-1, and that's without a typical LeBron James effort thus far. Still, he imposed his will on Game 3, and if their role players are doing the job, the Cavaliers are extremely tough to beat. James is bound to blow up one of these games, and Game 4 is the best bet for that to happen.
Condition: Cleveland Grade:

Other Picks

Larry Ness

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (10-day all sports run is now at 24-9 or 23-9-1)

I want to get this EXACTLY right, so I'm copying and pasting this quote directly. Read it slowly. "We're comfortable with Barry," Giants manager Bruce Bochy told the team's official Web site. "The results are not great but we have to figure a way to score some runs. The Astros are playing well. It looks like they are clicking." Of course the Barry he's referring to his Zito, who signed a $126 million deal with the Giants prior to the '07 season. He finished last year with a career-worst 11-13 mark, as well as a career-high 4.53 ERA. Despite that poor season, Zito entered '08 with a 113-76 (.598) career mark. He owned a 3.67 ERA and a 1,227-643 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In seven starts this year, Zito is 0-7 (6.95 ERA), allowing 46 hits in 33.2 innings with a 16-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio. And I'm supposed to believe Bochy when he says he's "comfortable with Barry?" Now to his reference that the Astros are "clicking." No kidding, Bruce! Houston was just 6-12 on April 19 but after sweeping the Dodgers in LA over the weekend, the Astros have won 15 of their last 20, while averaging 5.9 RPG. Both teams are hitting about the same (Giants are at .258 and the Astros at .257) but while the Giants have scored the second-fewest runs of any NL team at 133 (only SD has scored less), the Astros have scored 185, which computes to 4.87 per game to the Giants' 3.50! Not much to worry about there either, Bruce! Now to Zito's mound opponent for tonight, Houston's Roy Oswalt. Oswalt began the '08 season with a seven-year mark of 112-54 (.675) with a 3.07 ERA. He had some mechanical troubles early on but the team has won FOUR of his last five starts, while Oswalt has posted a 3.55 ERA. He hasn't been quite "vintage Oswalt" this year, but he's getting there. As for Zito and his 0-7 record with a 6.95 ERA, Bochy seems "comfortable." You can't make this stuff up! Las Vegas Insider on the Hou Astros.
Condition: Houston Grade:

Cullen Mathews

Cullen's 15* and 10* Unit MLB Double-Header Plays For Monday - Concluding The Weekend Set With Pittsburgh & Atlanta, 2 Winners Before Both Teams Move On!

Faded Van Boeschoten religiously last year. He not only has mediocre stuff, but he's much more suited for bullpen duty than a starter's role. Fililng in as an 'emergency' starter of sorts here, and having to face Hudson, this is much Pittsburgh conceding that they'll hope to string some hits together against the all-star instead of pegging any real chance of winning this game. Two big games on tap for ATL as they head into a series vs. Philadelphia and then the A's in interleague play. With the way they've choked away the first few games of this series, even more important for Cox to leave Pittsburgh on an upswing, especially going to Philly. I don't expect Van Boescheoten to last more than 5 innings, and, this being the 2nd game, feel Pitt will be more concerned with not consuming too much pitching rather than using their main setup men. Love ATL for both games - Jurrjens has been solid thus far and Dukes is living off his name alone and his great first year pitching - he routinely gives up many more walks + hits than innings pitched, and is facing an ATL team that's stasticallly one of the best vs. lefties.
Condition: Atlanta Grade:

Larry Ness

Larry Ness' 15* Pitching Mismatch of the Week (SEVEN straight wins ups GOW run to 22-8 s/Apr 7!)

Maybe Tampa should have rid itself of the "devil" part of its nickname years ago. The Devil Rays became just the Rays this year and the team opens this four-game series with the Yankees having won 13 of its last 18 games and sporting a 21-16 record (first time club has been five games over .500 in its history!). Beginning with a three-game sweep of the Blue Jays at Disney's Wide World of Sports facility from April 22-24 (considered Tampa home games), the Rays own a nine-game home winning streak. The Yankees come into this game after poor weather shortened their three-game series in Detroit to just two games (1-1) over the weekend, leaving them at only 19-19 and "looking up" at the Rays in the AL East standings (how weird is that?). These teams have met six times already this year, with the Rays taking the first two but the Yankees winning the last four. Make that five straight after tonight. Andy Pettitte goes for the New Yorkers and while he's just 3-3 with a 3.77 ERA this year in seven starts, he's 3-1 on the road in '08, including a win here in Tampa on 4/15. That win gives him a 14-3 record with a 3.62 ERA in 23 career appearances versus the Rays, including an 8-1 mark with a 3.30 ERA in 11 starts here in Tampa. Tampa has traditionally struggled with lefties, going 59-85 (.410) vs left-handers from 2005-07 and opening this year at 5-6 vs lefties, averaging only 3.6 RPG. Pettitte's mound opponent is Matt Garza, in his third season in the majors but first with the Rays. He pitched for the Twins the last two seasons, making 26 appearances (24 starts) with an 8-13 record (4.47 ERA). The Twins went 11-13 in his starts but that included a 3-9 home mark where is ERA was 6.39. He's made five starts for the Rays in '08, going 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA (team is 2-3). However, in his only two home starts, he's again struggling in his home park, lasting just 7.2 innings, while allowing 11 hits, six walks (just three Ks) and six ERs for a 7.04 ERA. The Yanks may not be at full speed (A-Rod and Posada on the DL) but Pettitte vs Garza is a "no-contest!" Pitching Mismatch of the Week 15* NY Yankees.
Condition: NY Yankees Grade: